inspire! (updates)

the usual suspects.
."kids"
dj spooky
hallmark.com
the chicago cubbies

erich gruen
ed bradley
george hincapie
naeem mohaimen


harry caray
chicagosports.com
dj shadow
apple computers
"the lemon", by mohammed mrabet

the street, by israel rabon
toni morrisson
sonia sanchez
new york city
adobe photoshop

miles davis
john coltrane
richard clarke
wangay dorji
tim russert
john stewart
826nyc



blogster
howard gardner
"the old man and the sea", by ernest hemmingway
john steinbeck
100% juice
abraham joshua heschel
graphic novels
batman
marjane satrapi
spike lee
owen wilson
charlie rose
mos def
talib kweli

feeling blue

i have been writing on serious topics recently, but i hope you don't feel like the cubbies aren't very serious. the cubbies are _very_ serious.
; )

this year has been especially sad for cubs fans. while i know there are really truly serious things happening, sometimes i like to just read about the cubbies. your diversion is supposed to be lots of fun, though. what happens when your hobby becomes sad?

what happened this year? many people think dusty baker is the most serious problem. i do think that dusty has made some strange choices, but i don't think he is the major reason the cubbies have struggled so much.


1) corey patterson
2) left field
3) softies
4) missing!
5) dustyball
6) backline relief pitching
7) don't be defensive!


1) corey patterson

some have started to say that losing sammy sosa and moises alou are the largest reasons why the 2005 cubs have performed so poorly. left field has certainly been disappointing, but center field has been the crazy blow. the composite stats for leadoff hitter and center field are last in the major leagues!

corey's performance has certainly been a much bigger drag on the cubs offense than missing sammy . . . in 2004, corey hit 266 with a .322 OBP. he had 24 HRs, 74 RBIs, and 32 SBs. in 2005, corey's has hit .222 with a .260 OBP! he has only 12 HRs, 28 RBIs, and 14 SBs. he also has only 19 BBs, vs 45 in 2004.


3) soft offensive numbers

the problem is not really batting average or power offensive statistics. the cubs team has a higher batting average this year (.274 v. .269), and is ranked 2nd in the national league in home runs (164). it's in the softer details. . . the cubs rank last (16th) in BBs, 9th in SBs, and 9th in OBP. moises alou and sammy sosa certainly did not increase SB's, and burnitz will match sosa in BB's.

our hitters have poor approaches. they swing too early in the count. first, opposing pitchers are able to work deeper into games. we know how important this is because our pitchers consistently have high pitch counts. when pitchers have high pitch counts, they are less effective. second, starting pitchers with high pitch counts are pulled for relief pitching. relief pitchers are dramatically less effective than starting pitchers. third, when hitters work good counts, they also receive better pitches to hit. better pitches obviously translate to more basehits, but better counts also enable hitters to hit for team goals like advancing baserunners. fourth, increased walks are increased baserunners which lead to increased runs scored.

4) missing consistent 5th starter

injuries to starters did not hurt us _that_ much more this year than last year. . . mark prior and kerry wood each had serious injuries last year that caused them to miss significant starts. while wood has started 12 less games this year, he only started 22 games last year. and, prior figures to have 5 more starts this year than last year at a lower ERA (3.72 v. 4.02).

i think the major missing piece was a consistent 5th starter. matt clement has 181 innings at 3.68 ERA (2nd on staff last year, would be 2nd on staff this year). then, the replacements for woody and prior last year were dramatically better. i really mean that glendon rusch was dramatically better.


5) dustyball


dusty has made some really poor choices this year. some of these choices make more sense short term (taxing starters without backline bullpen health), but some were bad (moving productive hitters lower in the lineup (michael barrett at 8? todd walker at 6?), some disappointing (avoiding young players, even in a consistent rotation), and some really horrible (corey and neifi in the 1 and 2 spot).

i like dusty, but he's definitely on the list. i heard one poster speak about bad years. sometimes, really good players have really bad years. i imagine that dusty will have a great 2006. he sounds motivated and already on point. but, what happened this year?


6) the backline bullpen

the major pieces of the bullpen haven't been that bad. . . will ohman has been great as a left handed specialist, michael wuertz did have a great first half (before being worn down), and roberto novoa has continued to improve. while latroy hawkins' numbers really were pretty good last year, there's no doubt that ryan dempster has been more effective as a closer.

i think the major difference is the backline relievers . . . remlinger went into a severe tailspin, and we were not able to find strong middle or secondary relievers. jon leicester and cliff bartosh flamed out early, scott williamson flamed out late, and joe borowski couldn't get it together on time. where were you, jermaine van buren? why did you destroy chad fox, dusty?


ahhhhh!